--- title: Forecasting the January 2021 Labor Market Report description: Forecasting the January 2021 Labor Market Report image: https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hubfs/January%202021%20-%20labor%20market%20forecast.png --- [![GSI-Logo-Hubspot\_v2-1](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hs-fs/hubfs/GSI-Logo-Hubspot_v2-1.png?width=733&height=219&name=GSI-Logo-Hubspot_v2-1.png "GSI-Logo-Hubspot_v2-1")](http://www.geographicsolutions.com) - Company - [About Us](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Company/About-Us) - [Clients](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/company/clients) - [Partnerships](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/company/partnerships) - [Accolades & Achievements](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/company/Accolades-Achievements) - [GSI International](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Company/GSI-International) - Solutions - Industry - [Workforce Development](http://geographicsolutions.com/Workforce) - [Unemployment Insurance](http://geographicsolutions.com/Unemployment) - 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1 min read - [0 Comments](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/forecasting-the-january-2021-labor-market-report#comments-listing) - by [Phillip Sprehe](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/author/phillip-sprehe) - February 4, 2021 - [bureau-of-labor-statistics](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/bureau-of-labor-statistics) , [january-2021-labor-market-forecast](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/january-2021-labor-market-forecast) , [labor-market](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/labor-market) The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) and Current Population Survey (CPS) report for January 2021 on Friday, February 5th. Geographic Solutions, Inc. (GSI), has produced forecasts of the two most closely watched macroeconomic data series from the report: the monthly change in employment and the monthly unemployment rate. The labor market begins 2021 during a period of short-term uncertainty. Job growth has weakened over the last several months and turned negative in December 2020 (-140,000). Despite the return to pre-pandemic levels of job changes, the month-to-month volatility has not seen a commensurate decline since September 2020 when job creation was 711,000. Similar volatility with diminished employment growth means that the percentage error is expected to be higher in the next few months until wide distribution of the Covid-19 vaccines sets the economy back on a strong recovery pattern. GSI derives its employment forecast from internal data on job severance counts and the number of applications for unemployment benefits filed on GSI state client sites. The forecast uses unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor. As seen in the chart below, we predict modest job growth in January of 50,000. ![Monthly change in U.S. Employment - forecast](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Monthly%20change%20in%20U.S.%20Employment%20-%20forecast.png?width=721&name=Monthly%20change%20in%20U.S.%20Employment%20-%20forecast.png) Portrayed in the table below is the 6.7% unemployment rate that GSI forecasts for January, maintaining the same rate since November 2020. The unemployment rate forecast used the same indicators as the employment forecast. ![Monthly U.S. unemployment rate - forecast](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Monthly%20U.S.%20unemployment%20rate%20-%20forecast.png?width=719&name=Monthly%20U.S.%20unemployment%20rate%20-%20forecast.png) After the release of the report, GSI will post a full analysis of the results. ### Related posts [![Monthly Job Gains Fall by More Than Half in November's Current Employment Statistics Report](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hs-fs/hubfs/November%202020%20Jobs%20Report%20header%20image%201.png?width=690&upsize=true&name=November%202020%20Jobs%20Report%20header%20image%201.png)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/monthly-job-gains-fall-more-than-half-november-current-employment-statistics-report) ### Monthly Job Gains Fall by More Than Half in November's Current Employment Statistics Report The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) report and Current Population Survey (CPS) for November 2020 on Friday, December 4th. The results mark nine months since the Covid-19 economic lockdown and seven months since the labor market recovery. [bureau-of-labor-statistics](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/bureau-of-labor-statistics) , [january-2021-labor-market-forecast](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/january-2021-labor-market-forecast) , [labor-market](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/labor-market) - ![Share on Facebook](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hubfs/GeographicSolutions_March2020/img/Facebook.svg) - ![Tweet](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hubfs/GeographicSolutions_March2020/img/Twitter.svg) - ![Share on LinkedIn](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hubfs/GeographicSolutions_March2020/img/LinkedIn.svg) - [![Send email](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/hubfs/GeographicSolutions_March2020/img/Email.svg)](mailto:?body=https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/forecasting-the-january-2021-labor-market-report) 0 Comments ### Categories - [Bureau of Labor Statistics (2)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/bureau-of-labor-statistics) - [Current Employment Statistics (2)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/current-employment-statistics) - [Current Population Survey (2)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/current-population-survey) - [U.S Employment (2)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/u-s-employment) - [Covid-19 Vaccine (1)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/covid-19-vaccine) - [Insider (1)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/insider) - [January 2021 Jobs Report (1)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/january-2021-jobs-report) - [January 2021 Labor Market Forecast (1)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/january-2021-labor-market-forecast) - [Labor Market (1)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/labor-market) - [November 2020 Jobs Report (1)](https://blog.geographicsolutions.com/insights-and-perspective/tag/november-2020-jobs-report) see all ### *Building Integrated Workforce Development Systems* #### **Company** [About Us](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Company/About-Us) [Clients](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Company/Clients) [Partnerships](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Company/Partnerships) #### **Resources** [Training Ops](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Resources/Training-Opportunities) [Newsroom](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/News-Events/Newsroom) [Blog](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/News-Events/Blog) #### **Careers** [Corporate Culture](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Careers/Corporate-Culture) [Current Openings](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Careers/Current-Openings) [Apprenticeships](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Careers/Apprenticeships-GSI) #### [**Contact Us**](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/Contact-Us) 2570 Coral Landings Blvd. Palm Harbor, FL 34684 [727-786-7955 (Headquarters)](tel:+1-727-786-7955) [+44-114-463-0004 (UK Office)](tel:+44-114-463-0004) [Request More Information](https://go.geographicsolutions.com/request-a-demo) [Media Inquiry](mailto:mediainquiry@geosolinc.com?subject=Media%20Inquiry%20for%20Geographic%20Solutions%20) [Sitemap](https://www.geographicsolutions.com/GSI-Sitemap) #### **Follow Us** - [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GeographicSolutions) - [Twitter](https://www.twitter.com/geosolutionsinc) - [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/company/geographic-solutions) - [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCb7sPmEsVVt4QfzA8SK7YdQ)   © 1998-2026 Geographic Solutions, Inc. 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